The risk of bowel cancer increases with age

As people age, they are more likely to grow polyps, some of which may undergo gene changes that turn normal tissue into cancer.

This is why age is considered a non-modifiable bowel cancer risk factor.

Bowel cancer is more frequently diagnosed in people aged 70-74, with the average age of diagnosis 68.1 years for males and 69 years for females.

The trend in age-specific incidence rates for bowel cancer in 2021 (the most recent year for which actual data is available) was similar to that of previous years, with rates rising sharply after age 45-50 and peaking in people aged 80+.

In 2024, it is estimated that a person’s risk of being diagnosed with bowel cancer (unadjusted for competing mortality) is:

  • 6 in 1,000 before age 50
  • 26 in 1,000 (1 in 38) for those aged 50–74
  • 45 in 1,000 for those aged 75 and over.

While the single biggest risk factor for bowel cancer is increasing age, with 87.4% of bowel cancers occurring in people aged 50 and over, anyone at any age, can develop bowel cancer.

Rates of early-onset bowel cancer in people under age 50, known as , are on the rise.

The risk of being diagnosed with bowel cancer before age 40 has more than doubled since the year 2000.

Lifetime risk of developing or dying from bowel cancer

The lifetime risk of developing or dying from bowel cancer refers to the chance a person has, over the course of their lifetime, of being diagnosed with or dying from bowel cancer.

The lifetime risks of developing and dying from bowel cancer for men and women is based on actual incidence data from 2021 and mortality data from 2023, the most recent years for which data are available.

The risk is expressed both in terms of a percentage and as odds.

The risk that a woman will develop bowel cancer during her lifetime is 6.2%.

This means she has about 1 chance in 16 of developing bowel cancer. Put another way, 1 out of every 16 women in Australia will develop bowel cancer during her lifetime.

The risk that a woman will die from bowel cancer during her lifetime is 2.8%.

This means she has about 1 chance in 36 of dying from bowel cancer. Put another way, 1 out of every 36 women in Australia will die from bowel cancer during her lifetime.

These numbers are average risks for the overall Australian population.

Your risk may be higher or lower, depending on your particular risk factors.

The risk that a man will develop bowel cancer during his lifetime is 6.7%.

This means he has about 1 chance in 15 of developing bowel cancer. Put another way, 1 out of every 15 men in Australia will develop bowel cancer during his lifetime.

The risk that a man will die from bowel cancer during his lifetime is 2.9%.

This means he has about 1 chance in 35 of dying from bowel cancer. Put another way, 1 out of every 35 men in Australia will die from bowel cancer during his lifetime.

These numbers are average risks for the overall Australian population.

Your risk may be higher or lower, depending on your particular risk factors.

A brochure titled "Non-Modifiable Risk Factors: Understanding Bowel Cancer" with a group of people outdoors on the cover.

Non-modifiable risk factors

A Bowel Cancer Australia resource outlining non-modifiable risk factors for bowel cancer, including a family medical history chart.